Global natural rubber output could jump over 5 percent this year after posting its first drop in a half-decade in 2014, as a price rebound prompts more tapping in key producers Thailand, Vietnam and India, a top industry official said.
The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) expects international output of 11.18 million tonnes in 2015, its secretary-general told Reuters.
Despite rising production, natural rubber prices are likely to extend gains after climbing over a quarter since hitting their lowest in more-than five years in September last year, boosted by lower inventory and economic recovery in the United States.
"Total world consumption didn't fall last year. There was incremental growth, which depleted stocks," Sheela Thomas said on the sidelines of industry conference India Rubber Meet.
At the end of January, stocks in ANRPC countries stood at 988,300 tonnes, down nearly a quarter from last year's level.
"In the next few weeks, wintering will affect production ... A moderate increase in prices has to happen."
Rubber is tapped year round but latex output drops during the dry wintering season, when trees shed leaves. Wintering in Thailand and Malaysia lasts from February to April.
OUTPUT REVIVAL
A sharp drop in prices had prompted some farmers in India, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia to suspend tapping last year.
A moderate recovery in prices will encourage the resumption of tapping, especially inThailand, where farmers do not have alternative sources of income, Thomas said.
Output in Thailand, the world's biggest natural rubber producer, is likely to rise 7.4 percent to 4.3 million tonnes, while production in second-biggest producer Indonesia could remain largely steady around 3.1 million tonnes.
Vietnam, which became the world's No.3 producer in 2013, could see its output rising 4.9 percent to a record 1 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, a slowdown in China's economy could pull down the Asian giant's imports for the first time in at least a decade, Thomas said.
She estimated China's 2015 imports at 3.7 million tonnes, down nearly 10 percent from the year before
China's Premier Li Keqiang on Thursday said the world's second largest economy would target growth this year of around 7 percent, signalling the lowest expansion for a quarter of a century.
"China's growth has been moderating, which will have an impact on demand. Imports from other countries are expected to go up," Thomas said.
