Those curious about the effects of elevated import duties on a market need look no further than the U.S. replacement tire market over the past four years.
Since the U.S. government imposed duties in 2015 — ranging up to 100 percent in some cases — on passenger and light truck tires from China, imports of passenger tires to the U.S. from that nation have dropped more than 80 percent, to 8.5 million units last year from 50.4 million in 2014.
As a result, the share of the U.S. passenger tire aftermarket taken by tires from China collapsed, falling to 3.9 percent last year from 24.4 percent in 2014.
The industry collectively is now looking at the potential impact of antidumping and countervailing duties imposed in February on truck and bus tires from China. The duties, which range from 20.98 percent to 63.34 percent countervailing and 9 percent to 22.57 percent antidumping, took effect in mid-February.The truck/bus tire duties are the result of a petition filed in April 2017 by the United Steelworkers (USW) union, which represents workers at unionized tire factories in the U.S.
The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) voted in February 2017 not to impose duties, which prompted a USW appeal with the Court of International Trade, which remanded the decision to the ITC, which decided two months ago in favor of duties after re-evaluating the case.
At this point, it is still too early to gauge the full impact of the ITC's ruling on the market and importers of truck/bus tires from China, although there have been a few moves lately that indicate the commercial tire segment may mimic changes that took place in the passenger tire market.
Other recent actions by the Trump administration on tariffs on Chinese goods are compounding problems facing importers and add a wild card into the task of forecasting market changes.
In fact, the imposition of a general 10-percent tariff in September 2018 on $200 billion worth of goods from China and the threat of hiking this to 25 percent at year-end resulted in a spike in imports of truck/bus tires last year from China to a record 9.2 million units.
The 42-percent increase in shipments was inflated by perhaps 3 million units (or more) by importers' placing extra orders toward year-end to get product on-shore prior to the threatened year-end bump to 25 percent, multiple sources said.
While the administration eventually postponed those tariffs — which were scheduled to take effect May 10 — the importers' moves proved providential when the Department of Commerce handed down in February its decision to impose countervailing and antidumping duty orders on truck and bus tires from China, sources said.
The surplus inventory of these "tariff-beater" imports on hand could serve to fill the gap, at least temporarily, for any shortfalls in new imports, sources indicated.At this point it's still speculation as to how much the duties — ranging from 20.98 to 63.34 percent countervailing and 9 to 22.57 percent antidumping — will affect imports from China, but the track record for passenger tire imports could be a blueprint.
Since the import duties took effect, there have been a few disclosures of price increases in response. Among these were: Bridgestone Americas Tire Operations raising prices 20 percent on March 5 on all Dayton-brand truck and bus radial tires sold in the U.S.; and Toyo Tire U.S.A. Corp. raising dealer base prices May 1 on its commercial tire range by an average of 5 percent, with the exception of the Toyo M320 on-/off-road tire.
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co., which sources all of its Cooper- and Roadmaster-brand truck tires from China, raised prices by an undisclosed amount at the start of the second quarter to compensate for the elevated import duties.
Cooper noted in its first quarter financial results it had incurred $10 million in costs related to the import duties, which amount to slightly more than 42 percent on Cooper products, Cooper President Brad Hughes said.
Cooper estimates the elevated import duties will result in $50 million in costs for the full year. Mr. Hughes said management expects there will be additional incremental prices increases this year but doesn't expect they will be sufficient to offset the full impact of the duty-related costs.
Despite the import duties and additional costs, Mr. Hughes stressed in comments to financial analysts during a conference call that Cooper is committed to continued growth of its TBR business, with both the Cooper and Roadmaster-brand product lines.
In addition, Prinx Chengshan Tire Co. Ltd. — a former Cooper Tire joint venture — has put on hold plans to launch a truck tire brand in North America, citing the impact of the import duties and the potential to source tires from a plant being built in Chonburi, Thailand. The plant has a nameplate capacity of 4 million passenger and 800,000 truck/bus radials.
At the same time, though, the import "shockwave" of 2015 — along with increased scrutiny of imports by governments in Europe and elsewhere — prompted several major Chinese tire makers to consider building capacities outside of China.
In the past five years at least eight major Chinese companies have built or are in the process of building tire plants outside of China, predominantly in Thailand but also in Vietnam:
The venture will extend Cooper's relationship with Sailun Jinyu, which already involves an offtake production agreement covering production of Cooper's Roadmaster-brand truck/bus tires at the company's existing Vietnam plant and Sailun Jinyu's pending purchase of a 35-percent stake in Cooper's Qingdao Ge Rui Da Rubber Co. Ltd. (GRT) joint venture in Qingdao, China.
U.S. import statistics from the past several years show the shift away from China markedly.
Passenger tire imports from Thailand, for example, have tripled in the past four years, rising to 33.8 million units last year from 11.2 million in 2015. Likewise, light truck tire imports from Thailand have doubled to 6.64 million units in 2018 versus 3.03 million in 2015.
Truck/bus tire imports have risen as well, but not quite as dramatically — up 40 percent to 2.45 million units last year. The 2019 data very likely will show a marked change.
At the same time, Vietnam has emerged as viable player in the global tire sourcing game, shipping 8.5 million passenger tires to the U.S. last year, nearly double the volume in 2015.
